MLS STATS 6/13/2012

Median Price up sharply in May

Inventory may have reached bottom

Prices may start bringing more Sellers into market


Pending:                          12,289                 ( -362 from 5/30)
Pending Sfam:                 10,674                 ( -347 from 5/30)

AWC:                             7,600                   ( -113 from 5/30)
AWC Sfam:                    6,616                   ( - 95 from 5/30)

Active:                           12,839                 ( +188 from 5/30)
Active Sfam:                    9,983                 ( +200 from 5/30)

Closed 5/28-6/3:            2,380
Closed Sfam:                 2,032

Closed May:                  8,434                 ( -14 from April 12)
                                                               ( -1,362 from May'11)

Median Price May:         $146,000           ( +$7500 from April'12; +$37,000 from May'11)

New Listings in May:          9,562

Sorry I missed last week; it couldn't be helped as myself have become fairly busy.  There is something different in the air in Arizona; people are feeling far more confident, you are seeing far more construction activity in new home subdivisions, and buyers appear to be pursuing homes in earnest; both investors, and owner occupants.

The May stats continue to show a pretty strong rebound for housing in the Phoenix area.  Prices are much stronger again; inventory, while perhaps bottoming, is still near record lows; closings, while lower than last year, are running about where they have been all year, as lack of inventory weighs on Buyers ability to purchase.

I do think we may see the stronger sales season that traditionally ends in June continue on into July and August, as buyers unable to complete transactions during the busiest times can now perhaps find something.  Some will be driven out of the purchase market by the higher prices as well, but I do think we will see good sales going on through the summer.

MLS STATS 5/30/2012

Median Price Still Rising

Pending sales overtake Active Listings
Sales in May will lag due to lack of inventory


Pending:                            12,651      ( -174 from last week)
Pending Sfam:                   11,021     (    -63 from last week)

AWC:                                 7,713      ( -50 from last week)
AWC Sfam:                        6,711       ( -22 from last week)

Active:                             12,648       ( -82 from last week)
Active Sfam:                      9,783       ( -110 from last week)

Closed 5/21-5/27:             1,805       ( -36 from last week)
Closed Sfam:                    1,535       ( -4 froml last week)

Median Price in May:         $146,900     (+8900 from April)


Prices continue to rise, but the lack of inventory is suppressing the overall number of sales.  Pending sales were higher than active again- its not so much that pending numbers are really high- they are not at their peak, but inventory has fallen substantially. 

May sales are going to finish around 8000 or so- quite a bit less than last year, but again, no inventory.  The key thing now is the price continues to rise.  It is hard to see inventory continuing to drop, however.  We are reaching a point of elasticity that I never thought we could get to in the first place, and it going substantially lower would be unlikely.  Builders will pick up production and prices would rise high enough where selleers would make their properties available.  I do think we will see good sales continue on during the summer.  I would be surprised if we see sales fall off this summer to far; there seems to be enough pent-up demand to keeep sales moving forward. 

End of the month stats are going to be far more interesting, so I am going to hang it up here.  Ill do a little more detailed info next week. 

MLS STATS 5.23.2012

Pendings Rise, Inventory Falls
Median Price rising again in May
Pending Sales surpass overall listings


Pendings:                        12,825   ( +166 from last week)
Pending Sfam:                11,165    ( +180 from last week)

AWC:                             7,763     ( -225 from last week)
AWC Sfam:                    6,733     ( -211 from last week)

Active:                           12,730    ( -148 from last week)
Active Sfam:                    9,893    ( -110 from last week)

Closed 5/14-5/20:           1,841    ( +438 from last week)
Closed Sfam:                  1,539     ( +361 from last week)

Median Price in May:  $145,000  ( up $7000 from April)

Ryness Index:  .87    ( a year ago this week: .5)

Stats are continuing to go in the right direction, with pendings rising and inventory falling, driving up the price.  New home sales also continue to be stronger, and more than likely they are stronger than this showing.  Still, it close to being double the previous year, so that means there is some excellent new home activity going on out there, and it is likely to get better as inventory continues to shrink and prices for resales continue to rise.

I am not going to list it here, but we did hear some good news anecdotally this week as well; there is some optimism in the market that we have turned a corner nationally as well, although Diana Glick from CNBC seems intent on tamping down any optimism, telling us that the home price gains aren't real.  Its not really that newsworthy for Arizona, but she does mention us.  There isn't much bad that can be said.

The actual sales numbers are going to be down from last year; we simply don't have the listings to support higher sales.  You might have also noticed that there are more pending sales than inventory; it is not the first time it has happened, but the last time it was a end of the month thing where they briefly passed before bouncing into normal position at the end of the month.  This is the first time it was recorded on a weekly post, so it is significant.  Even more significant:  single family inventory has fallen far below active inventory.  This is a very healthy demand market, with a strong indicator of price gains.

I will wait until the end of the month to do any additional commentary, but the numbers we might have thought shocking a few years ago are definitely here.